On Wednesday, November 11th, World leaders formally began their discussions during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP31) held in Antalya, Turkey. As the number of floods, heat waves, and other climate-related disasters that occurred over the last year continued to increase, there was an increasing demand for immediate action. The summit (COP31), will be taking place between November 9th and November 20th. At COP31, the primary objective is very clear: converting the commitments made during previous conferences into policy and funding that will allow each country to reduce its emissions, and help communities adapt to the effects of climate change.
The early agenda is being set against the background of a lack of credibility. Countries at the 2023 conference in Dubai reached agreement to move away from fossil fuels. Subsequent meetings in Azerbaijan and Brazil did not produce as much agreement on cutting emissions. However, the 2022 conference included a compromise to provide more funding for adapting to climate change for vulnerable countries. While diplomacy may appear ineffective based upon this past performance, it appears that leaders will ultimately be evaluated based upon how they implement their promises, not solely based upon the wording used in final declarations. The Associated Press’ report on the opening day of the leaders’ meeting provides additional context regarding recent events.
The 1.5-degree goal remains a narrowing window
The goal for the world to limit its temperature increase to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than it was during pre-industrial times was established by the Paris Agreement. However, scientists are reporting today that the world will likely go past this limit. Although this prediction doesn’t mean that each fraction of a degree is insignificant, reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions we emit into the atmosphere can lessen the extent of the impacts of climate change. Conversely, delaying our efforts to cut back on greenhouse gases makes it much harder and more expensive to transition to alternative energy sources in the future.
The distinction has significance for communicating with the public. A threshold represents a policy and scientific benchmark, rather than a switch which activates climate impact. Extreme heat, intense rainfall, droughts, and sea level rise are increasing as global temperatures rise. However, the degree of risk associated with these events depends upon the geographic location and the vulnerability of both human populations and infrastructure. Consequently, local preparedness and adaptive strategies will continue to be relevant in conjunction with global efforts to reduce emissions.
Energy security shapes the debate
Energy prices and availability of energy are additional factors that will be driving the summit. As reported by the AP, there has been an impact on energy from conflicts around the world, which has led many governments to reconsider their investments in wind and solar power. These considerations can support the argument for increasing the diversity of energy production, however, expanding renewable energy will require significant improvements in grid systems, storage capacities, permitting procedures, and access to funding. A country does not reach its goal of transitioning its energy system simply because it has set a deadline for achieving this goal; rather, a country must develop the physical infrastructure and legal framework necessary to meet this deadline.
Türkiye is hosting the conference, as Australia leads negotiations, according to AP. This arrangement places two nations with substantial fossil-fuel resources and plans for renewable energy at the forefront of the global conversation about climate change. Their positions will be scrutinized by other large economies, vulnerable island states and countries dependent on fossil fuel revenue. The success of a summit addressing these issues depends in part upon whether the negotiating texts provide a route for governments to accept and implement them.
Finance is where ambition meets capacity
For low-income nations, adaptation financing is not merely a theoretical diplomatic term. Adaptation financing can provide funding for flood protection, heat-resistant school buildings, early warning systems, improved water supply and support for farmers who have experienced variations in their rainfall patterns. Funding that has been promised to fund adaptation financing must be available, reliable, and substantial enough to meet the requirements of those nations. There are also discussions about which nations will provide the adaptation financing, how adaptation financing is defined as climate financing, and whether the adaptation financing provided will take the form of grants or loans.
The slow pace of progress in climate negotiations can be attributed to these differences of opinion, which also play a key role in how people view climate change initiatives. For example, countries that produced very little of the total historical emissions typically have less money to help their citizens prepare for extreme weather events caused by climate change. Conversely, the largest emitters of greenhouse gases are being pressured to lower their emissions rapidly. Therefore, a sustainable agreement will require addressing both aspects of the issue; i.e., reducing the amount of pollution that causes warming and providing support for those communities currently experiencing the effects of climate change.
There is also a matter of time. Projects designed to adapt to changes in our environment require time to plan, gather input from the people living near them and obtain funding for ongoing maintenance prior to beginning construction. Funds announced during a conference can take many years to be distributed to communities because of lengthy application processes, or because nations cannot fulfill eligibility criteria. Therefore, providing financial support that is accessible to people on the ground is part of delivering adaptation solutions rather than a administrative detail that can be dealt with after the fact.
A summit measured in follow-through
Leaders may make announcements about new projects in the coming weeks, but the key issues will be related to practical matters. For example, what are the timelines, budgets and responsible government departments/organizations for each project? Will countries be able to report on their progress using a common format so that it can be compared? Does the project consider how the workers and communities impacted by a shift in energy generation will be affected? Will the money be directed to areas where people are most at risk?
The logistical and political circumstances in which COP31 will unfold are also being constrained. AP has reported about the overcrowding of transportation systems, traffic delays at the venue of the event, and potential changes in security measures that may be implemented upon the arrival of world leaders. Although these issues may seem minor in comparison to the magnitude of the issues at stake, they highlight how difficult it is for countries to coordinate on a global scale prior to reaching consensus on the most divisive sections of an agreement.
The beginning of the discussions among leaders does not determine the success of the summit. However, it provides a point in time where each country’s pledges are to be assessed against their ability to deliver on those pledges. A successful outcome would not simply be measured by bold statements made at the conclusion of the event, but rather through the establishment of specific implementation measures, credible financing arrangements and an open process for assessing progress toward meeting commitments. If the leaders depart with only further commitments, there will still exist a significant divide between what is discussed during climate diplomacy and the actual experiences of people living in the world. On the other hand, if the leaders commit additional resources and hold themselves accountable to existing commitments, the Antalya meeting can contribute significantly to moving from committing to taking action.