China’s carbon emissions are now expected to reach their peak in 2028, a shift from earlier predictions that they would reach their highest point sooner. Because China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, experts from around the world are paying closer attention to the country’s actions on climate change.
Current Projections and Expert Opinions
A new expert survey estimates that around 70% of climate experts now predict China’s emissions will peak this decade, with the year 2028 identified as the most likely peak year. Confidence has visibly declined from earlier years, when nearly half of the analysts predicted emissions would peak by 2025, due to concerns over China’s rapid industrial and energy growth, its continued reliance on fossil fuels, and a slow rate of renewable energy installation.
New Climate Pledges and Roadmaps
China has recently made its first-ever numerical commitment to reduce emissions, proposing a 7–10% cut in greenhouse gas intensity (The Economist, 2009) over the next decade as part of its effort to return to peak levels, without defining a base year for these reductions. Under its latest Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), China has for the first time pledged an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, along with other targets, including achieving a 30% non-fossil fuel share in its energy mix and expanding wind and solar capacity to 3,600 gigawatts.
Why the Peak is Moving Later
The postponement of the projected peak is mainly due to China’s structural economic and energy issues. The country consumes ever more of the resource, and the supply of the clean variety is struggling to keep up with booming industrial demand. Experts point to a continued increase in the use of fossil fuels and lagging shifts in energy usage as reasons why the peak is projected to arrive later, rather than sooner.
Climate Action Implications
However, for the global climate goals to be met, how quickly those emissions decline after they peak is as important as when that moment arrives. Most analysts consider China’s short-term emission reduction goals to be conservative, but the absolute cap on coal consumption and efforts to promote renewable energy appear to reflect a psychological shift away from three decades of unbridled growth.
International Context and Response
China’s actions on climate change have a significant impact on the rest of the world. The nation’s new pledges come in response to increasing global scrutiny and discussion, especially at a time when other major economies are updating or providing submissions of their climate goals before important climate summits. The results of the survey and China’s official 2035 roadmap are central to discussions as negotiators from around the world plan for annual COP talks in Brazil.
What Happens Next?
Long-term, emissions could peak around 2028 and then slowly decline by a small amount each year — averaging 1.7% through 2035 — unless China accelerates its deployment of renewables and phases out coal more quickly. Success in these domains will not only determine the peak year but also China’s journey toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Conclusion
China’s emissions peak is now postponed this decade, with 2028 a date that many favour as the most likely. Although new commitments are tilting the climate strategy toward more stringent caps and greater deployment of clean energy, significant challenges remain on the nation’s roads, in its factories, and in its power plants. The world will be watching China’s progress, as its actions are key to unlocking the ambition of the Paris Agreement.