India’s trade agreement with the European Union could generate up to €119 billion in additional trade by 2035, according to an estimate highlighted in a Firstpost report published on November 6. The projected increase is compared with a scenario in which the two sides do not have the agreement. It is a forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
The estimate comes from a May 2026 report by the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, prepared with the Confederation of Indian Industry. The report projects that Indian exports to the EU could increase by €48 billion, while European exports to India could rise by as much as €71 billion. The distribution suggests that the agreement could expand trade in both directions, while also intensifying competition in India’s domestic market.
For Indian exporters, potential opportunities span labour-intensive industries such as textiles and apparel, leather and footwear, marine products, toys, sports goods, gems and jewellery. Engineering goods, chemicals, electrical equipment and automotive components could also benefit from improved access and closer supply-chain links.
Tariff reductions are one part of market access. The Firstpost report says the agreement provides immediate duty elimination on 70.4% of the EU’s tariff lines, covering 90.7% of India’s export value. A further group of tariff lines would receive zero-duty access over three or five years. The government expects these changes to improve the competitiveness of Indian goods in Europe.
But lower tariffs do not automatically bring orders. European buyers typically assess suppliers on quality, technical specifications, delivery reliability, traceability and the ability to sustain production at scale. Companies may need to invest in testing, certification, quality control, documentation and production upgrades before they can qualify as suppliers.
Rules of origin are another important requirement. They determine whether a product qualifies for preferential tariffs based on where it was made and how much value was added locally. A product shipped from India does not necessarily qualify simply because the export leaves an Indian port. Exporters must check the product-specific requirements and document compliance.
Smaller firms may face a greater burden in meeting these standards. The report quotes business representatives who describe the challenge as “market readiness”: having the capacity, certification and processes to meet European expectations. Shared testing facilities, practical guidance and connections to buyers could help smaller exporters prepare, but businesses will still need to understand the rules for their particular products.
Environmental requirements could also affect some sectors. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism applies carbon-related costs to certain imported goods, including energy-intensive products such as steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers. The trade agreement may improve access for some Indian steel exports, but it does not remove carbon-compliance obligations. Producers will need to track emissions and provide credible data.
The agreement is moving through formal approval procedures. Firstpost reported that both sides were working toward signing before the end of 2026, after legal review. The European Union and India would still need to complete the necessary approval and ratification steps before the agreement enters into force. The actual implementation date therefore remains dependent on those processes.
Businesses can use the intervening period to identify which products benefit from tariff changes, assess rules of origin and begin discussions with prospective buyers. That preparation could help companies avoid waiting until the agreement takes effect to address certification or capacity gaps.
The €119 billion estimate offers a measure of the potential scale, but the agreement’s success will be judged by actual trade and repeat business. Indian firms that can combine competitive pricing with consistent quality, reliable delivery and compliance may be better placed to benefit. The tariff changes create an opening; whether exporters can turn it into lasting commercial relationships is the next test.