India’s emissions growth is the highest in the world for five years, with an absolute rise anticipated to be more than that of any other major emitter, according to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2019. Even if India’s per capita emissions remain below global averages, its rapid growth in emissions will likely make it one of the top contributors, as is already happening with China. The global scale is set for catastrophic warming scenarios and predictions of a 1.5 degrees Celsius rise in temperatures above pre-industrial levels, the maximum target agreed upon under the Paris Accords, which risks dangerous climate impacts with high-end negative consequences for irreversible or even runaway systems.
India’s Emissions Growth and Global Context
In 2024, the world emitted 2.3% more greenhouse gases than it had previously, at a record 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent. India registered the largest rise in absolute emissions in 2023-24, with an addition of approximately 165 million tonnes of greenhouse gases, followed by China and Russia. India was one of the fastest-growing major economies in percentage terms, with a pace of growth of about 3.6%, just behind Indonesia. This boom is largely a result of its increasing energy requirements and industrial development.
Even in this aspirational scenario, India’s per capita emissions will still be below the current global average of 6.4 tonnes CO₂ equivalent, acknowledging the country’s lower historical responsibility and development context that must be considered in any long-term strategy for reducing emissions. India’s high emissions are predominantly the result of coal used for electricity and heat, which constitutes two-thirds of the country’s CO₂ output (it is also the largest emitter of soot). The rest comes from the industry’s use of fossil fuels and oil for transportation.
Climate Goals versus Current Trajectory
The UNEP report notes that even new NDC pledges under the Paris Agreement are insufficient, and the global temperature is expected to increase by 2.3-2.5°C this century, which is far higher than the safe limit of 1.5°C mentioned above. To prevent 1.5°C of warming, global emissions must decrease by 55 percent by 2035. Instead, the data on emissions is, in fact, getting worse, with the overshoot of 1.5°C now inevitable within a few short years.
India has pledged to cut the GHG emissions intensity of GDP by 45% compared to the 2005 baseline and increase the share of non-fossil fuel capacity in power generation by 40% by 2030. Although UNEP considers that India is on track to achieve these conditional targets under existing policies, the lack of a quantified carbon removal dimension is a significant omission. This lack of policy could come under scrutiny at this year’s COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil.
The Imminent 1.5°C Temperature Breach
Experts say that 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels sets you on a course for ever-more-frequent natural disasters, such as stronger hurricanes and more frequent floods, and puts critical sand in the gears of some of the planet’s most fragile ecosystems, from coral reefs to massive ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest. The warming is already approaching 1.4°C (ref., https://www.wmo.int/stateofclimate), and recent statements suggest that the global average temperature will reach, in a few years or for brief periods if not momentarily to date, more than 1.5°C, with substantial chances of a crossing by the longer-term averaged (20-year) warming.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations has requested prompt action to limit the size and duration of this overshoot. However, because current national pledges are insufficient and emissions continue to rise globally, the climate crisis remains a very real threat to our existence.
Conclusion
India’s rapid acceleration of greenhouse-gas emissions exemplifies the delicate balance between development imperatives and the overarching need to address climate change globally. India’s per capita emissions are still low by the standards of rich countries, but its increasing absolute emissions contribute significantly to exacerbating the global climate emergency. The world must act now to set a path that can keep temperatures at levels that avoid the worst impacts, help vulnerable populations cope with atmospheric changes, and meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement.
This urgent environmental problem highlights the importance of COP30 and other international climate efforts in encouraging countries to reduce emissions more quickly, strongly, and ambitiously, particularly in rapidly growing economies like India.