Global shipping is currently carrying 1.24 billion barrels of oil, the most significant volume of crude oil at sea. This flooded oil is surging through markets in 2025; it has resulted from increased production by oil exporters and decreased demand in major consumer economies. The imbalance has created havoc across markets and geopolitics worldwide.
Production Surge and Shipping Backlog
The volume of oil on tankers topped 1.24 billion barrels, as major producers, including OPEC+ nations, Russia, and first-time exporters such as Guyana and the United States, accelerated after the pullbacks. Daily output by OPEC+ countries from March to September had surpassed 2 million barrels, much of which was shipped to Asian nations, especially China and India.
More extended shipping routes to Asia, in particular, are also exacerbating the problem. Because more oil is “in transit” at any given time, the seaborne backlog is growing, and global afloat storage capacity is reaching unseen levels. In addition, record shipping rates do not include crude stowed in floating storage, while many vessels with oil at sea may also be inflated.
Cooling Demand and Price Pressures
With production surging, demand growth is much more abyssal. The world’s two biggest energy consumers, China and India, are responsible for most of it and absorb much of it, but their expansion is waning. Yet, with only 28.9% of growth, India is the one bright spot in the picture. The expected increase there is almost twice China’s, bringing the country’s total to 5.74M per day in 2025. The US, while remaining the leading oil-consuming country, has only marginal gains.
Brent and WTI futures have dropped by almost 18% over the past year due to excess oil on the market. Prices for WTI and Brent recently dropped to $56.84 and $60.55 per barrel, respectively. This is a significant change from the last few years, when there wasn’t enough oil on the market.
Geopolitical and Economic Implications
Moreover, the surplus is reshaping not only the market but the world’s energy policy. For the first quarter of 2026, OPEC+ is suspending further production hikes to clear the surplus and balance prices. In addition, producers are using the phenomenon as a political instrument: while Saudi Arabia keeps prices low to suppress rivals and antagonists, Russia, which western nations have targeted, sells oil to Asian consumers at reduced prices.
For countries that import, the oversupply brings both chances and dangers. India plans to import crude oil from multiple countries and use cheap Russian oil to fight inflation and trade deficits, even though US tariffs make logistics more difficult.
Shipping and Industry Impact
Tanker traffic’s record has altered shipping economics. Ships are out at sea for longer and are taking deeper voyages to sell or stock them. Costs have increased, and logistics have become more complicated, especially for refineries that require specific crude grades to operate. There is also an effect on the insurance and maritime risk management industries, where insurance is increasingly at risk due to blocked routes, conflict zones, and so forth.
What Lies Ahead
Indeed, energy agencies and analysts warn that the oil glut is likely to stay through 2026 because global supply could exceed demand by the widest margin in history. This may either force producers to restrict output more actively or cause importers to accelerate stockpiling. The tighter prices may remain in circulation, potentially sliding below $60 per barrel if the glut persists.
In short, the current flow of 1.24 billion barrels of oil along global shipping routes shows how a mix of aggressive upstream production, longer shipping lanes, and changing demand patterns is altering not only the oil market but also the way international trade, economic policy, and geostrategic balance operate.